ARCHIVED – Chapter 5. Conclusion

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The projections in EF2018 show an evolving Canadian energy system. Canadians’ use of energy is expected to be growing slowly, with energy and economic growth continuing to decouple. A global shift towards more low carbon technologies supported by strengthening climate policy, as outlined in the Technology Case, could put domestic fossil fuel use on a downward trajectory. Canada continues to have potential to increase production of many forms of energy, both renewable and from fossil fuel sources. Price and technology developments are the factors most likely to shape future production trends.

The pace and nature of this evolution will depend on many factors. Examples of these include: prices and market developments, emergence of new technologies, energy and climate policies at all levels of government, international policies and regulations, and the ongoing relationship between growing oil and natural gas production and capacity to transport these commodities to markets. Many key developments have occurred while this analysis was underway in 2018. Examples include the USMCA, the return of significant price discounts for Canadian heavy oil compared to global crude oil benchmarks, LNG Canada’s final investment decision to build an export LNG terminal on Canada’s west coast, and many important provincial policy decisions as part of the Pan-Canadian Climate Framework.

The projections in EF2018 are not a prediction of future Canadian energy trends. There are many reasons why future energy supply and demand may deviate from these projections. Energy systems are complex, involving a variety of uncertain factors interacting in sometimes unexpected ways. Alternatively, specific actions could be taken by governments, businesses, and citizens to change course from current trends to achieve outcomes not contemplated in this report. The projections contained in EF2018 provide a baseline to support ongoing discussion of Canada’s energy future, including many of the key uncertainties and emerging trends.

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