| Global Energy Market Dynamics |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Global crude oil, North American natural gas, and OECD carbon pricing aligned with numbers from IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2017 “Sustainable Development Scenario.”
- Crude oil and natural gas benchmark prices similar to Reference Case levels.
- Carbon prices begin to diverge from the Reference Case in 2023.
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- Carbon prices reach $100/tonne by 2030, and $140/tonne by 2040.
- Brent crude oil is $6/bbl lower than the Reference Case in 2030 ($69/bbl), and $11/bbl lower in 2040 ($69/bbl).
- Henry Hub natural gas is $0.30/MMBtu lower than the Reference Case in 2030 ($3.25/MMBtu), and $0.50/MMBtu lower in 2040 ($3.66/MMBtu). (All prices in 2016 US$)
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| Canadian Energy Market Dynamics |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- End-use prices marginally higher given carbon pricing trends.
- Benchmark prices at or near Reference Case levels.
- LNG export assumptions at Reference Case levels and begin with 0.75 Bcf/d in 2025.
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- End-use prices for fossil fuels higher than Reference Case, varying by the CO2 content of the fuel.
- Canadian differentials assumed to be the same as Reference Case, so lower benchmark prices imply lower Canadian prices. WCS and CLS are $11/bbl lower than Reference by 2040. NIT is $0.50/MMBtu lower than Reference by 2040 (prices in 2016 US$).
- LNG export assumptions at Reference Case levels, reaching 3 bcf/d by 2031.
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| Electricity Generation |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Utility scale solar PV overnight capital costs are 30% lower than the Reference Case by 2025.
- Onshore wind costs are 6% lower than the Reference Case by 2025.
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- Utility scale solar PV overnight capital costs are 40% lower than the Reference Case by 2040.
- Onshore wind is 16% lower than the Reference Case by 2040.
- Increased interprovincial transmission capacity.
- Improved demand side management.
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| Oil and Gas Production |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Steam solvent technology for in situ production achieves wide-scale commercial use, all new production by 2025 uses the technology.
- Steam-solvents applied to some existing reservoirs.
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- Pure solvent technology achieves commercialization and is applied to all new production by 2030.
- Output based allocations completely phased out by 2035.
- Energy intensity improvements for non-oil sands crude and natural gas production driven by carbon costs and increasingly competitive market.
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| Residential and Commercial Buildings |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Building shell and process improvements reduce energy needs in new buildings.
- High efficiency natural gas heating becomes standard for regions dominated by natural gas heat.
- Heat pumps make up to 10% of new sales by 2025 in jurisdictions with a high share of electric heating, and 2 to 5% for jurisdictions dominated by natural gas.
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- Building shell improvements and process improvements reduce energy requirements significantly for new builds, as well as retrofits.
- Heat pump purchase costs are 20 to 30% lower than current levels, and make up 40 to 70% of new sales by 2040 in the provinces, some of which may be hybrid systems with high efficiency natural gas.
- Increased integration with electricity production and use for transportation to balance generation and loads.
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| Transportation |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Average EV costs are 10% lower than the Reference Case, and 30% lower than current levels by 2025.
- Average ethanol blends in gasoline are 10% and 6% biodiesel by 2025.
- Vehicle emission standards remain at Reference Case levels.
- Efficiency improvements in aviation.
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- Average EV costs are 10 to 15% lower than the Reference Case, and 50 to 60% lower than current levels.
- EV penetration is on average 35% of new passenger vehicle sales in 2030, and averages nearly 65% by 2040.
- Conventional vehicle efficiency improves by 1 to 1.5% per year after current emission standards (2025 for passenger, 2028 for freight).
- Biofuel blends increase to 15% for gasoline and diesel by 2040.
- Aviation efficiency improves relative to the reference case, with 15% biofuel blending by 2040.
- Moderate electrification of heavy-duty freight sector towards the end of the projection, 5 to 8% of new sales by 2035-2040.
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| Other Industrial |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Improvements in average new device and process by 5 to 10% compared to the Reference Case.
- Biofuel and natural gas blending as described in transportation/RNG sections.
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- Sector adopts best available technologies. Average device and process performance improves by 15 to 30% compared to the Reference Case by 2040 Improved processes, like material recycling, reduce energy requirements.
- Biofuel and natural gas blending as described in transportation/RNG sections.
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| Multi-sector Technologies |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Renewable natural gas deployed, reaching 2% of mix by 2025.
- CCS begins to regain some momentum.
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- RNG blends reach nearly 4% by 2030, 10% by 2040.
- CCS capacity reaches 10 MT by 2030 and 45 MT by 2040, with additions across industry, power, and oil and gas production.
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| Northern Territories |
| Near term (2018-2025) |
Longer term (2025-2040) |
- Increased biofuel blending.
- Moderate increase in solar and wind electricity.
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- Efficiency improvements match other provinces.
- Biomass share of heating rises.
- Lower EV and heat pump adoption compared to other provinces, but same efficiency and biofuel blending rates.
- Solar (rooftop and community/utility) and wind capacity added to offset diesel generation.
- Increased use of natural gas delivered via LNG shipments offsets diesel usage.
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