Market Snapshot: Global EV sales need to significantly increase to meet 2030 Paris Agreement goals

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Release date: 2021-01-13

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020, says that electric vehiclesFootnote 1 (EVs) accounted for 2.6% of sales and made up roughly 1% of the total car fleet in 2019.

The market shareFootnote 2 of EVs in Canada reached 2.96% in 2019, up from 0.99% in 2017 and 2.59% in 2018. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicles reached 3.5% of total new vehicle registrations. Growth in new vehicle registrations of EVs has outpaced that of gasoline and diesel vehicles since 2012; however, this varies dramatically by province.

In the IEA’s “Sustainable Development Scenario,” an estimate of a possible pathway to reaching the Paris Agreement’s goals, electric vehicles account for 40% of total passenger car sales in 2030 and make up 13% of the global car fleet. In the IEA’s “Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,” more than 50% of passenger cars sold worldwide in 2030 are electric.

Figure 1. New Registrations of Electric Vehicles by Country, % Market Share by Country, and Total Stock by Country

Source and Description

Source: International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2020 (en anglais)

Description: This graph illustrates new registrations of EVs in thousands by country, new EV registration market share in percent by country, and EV total stock in thousands by country. The graph shows that in 2019, by market share, Norway was significantly higher than all other countries at 55%. The Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, and China had electric car market shares between 15% and 4.9%. Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and France had electric car market shares of between 3% and 2.7%. Korea, the U.S., and Thailand had electric car market shares of between 2.1 and 1.4%. Australia, Japan, Chile, Brazil, India, South Africa, and Mexico had electric car market cars of less than 0.1% in 2019. China and the U.S. had the highest new registrations of electric cars in 2019 at roughly 1 million and 325 000 respectively. By stock, China and the U.S. have the highest number of electric cars at roughly 3.35 million and 1.45 million, respectively. Canada had nearly 51 000 new registrations of EVs and a total EV stock of 141 000 in 2019.

As part of the Government of Canada’s plan to accelerate EV adoption, Canada joined the EV30@30 campaign, launched in 2017 by the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). EVI is a multi-government policy forum dedicated to accelerating the adoption of EVs worldwide. Other participating countries include China, France, Finland, Japan, India, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Together, these countries have a collective goal of accelerating EVs to 30% of new sales by 2030.

The market share of EVs in Norway as of 2019 is over 55%, and EVs in Netherlands and Sweden both have market shares over 10%. Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and France all have similar EV market shares, ranging between 2.8% and 3% of new vehicles sold. EVs in the United States (U.S.) have roughly 2% of market share in 2019.

With respect to the total EV fleet on the roads, China and the U.S. lead globally with roughly 3.35 million and 1.45 million, respectively. China and the U.S. also had the highest new registrations of EVs at roughly 1 million and 325 000, respectively.

For more on future scenarios of EV penetration in Canada, Canada’s Energy Future: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 includes a discussion on moving towards net-zero in personal passenger transportation.

Additional Reading:

Market Snapshot: New motor vehicle registrations show increase in SUVs and EVs

Market Snapshot: Quebec leads Canada in zero-emission vehicle policy

Market Snapshot: Growing electric vehicle incentives in Canada

Market Snapshot: Average electric vehicle range almost doubled in the last six years

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