Market Snapshot: Canada’s long-term natural gas production outlook
Release date: 2020-01-22
Canadian marketable natural gas production is projected to decrease in the short term given continued low prices, then increase in the long term as gas prices rise, according to Canada’s Energy Future 2019 (EF2019)Footnote 1, the most recent outlookFootnote 2 from the Canada Energy Regulator. British Columbia’s (B.C.) share of this production is also expected to continue to grow. Liquefied natural gas exports from Canada’s west coast are assumed to begin in 2025, which triggers additional drilling and production to supply it. Overall, natural gas production increases 32% from 2018 to 2040.
Figure 1. Projected Natural Gas Production through 2040
Source and Description
Description: The stacked area chart shows projected natural gas production by province until 2040 (left axis), and the projected Alberta natural gas price (right axis).
In 2010, Canadian natural gas production was just under 14.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), with 10.9 from Alberta, 2.9 from B.C., 0.5 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. In 2018, Canadian natural gas production was 16.2 Bcf/d, with 10.5 from Alberta, 5.1 from B.C., 0.4 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.
In 2025, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 15.6 Bcf/d, with 9.4 from Alberta, 5.9 from B.C., 0.4 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.
In 2040, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 21.4 Bcf/d, with 11.1 from Alberta, 9.9 from B.C., 0.4 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.
Although B.C.’s share of production increases as production from the Montney Formation grows, Alberta remains Canada’s largest natural gas producer. Saskatchewan gas production, which is mostly solution gas from oil production, declines slightly then gradually increases over the projection period as Saskatchewan’s oil production grows.
Explore this and other natural gas charts in the natural gas fact sheet from Canada’s Energy Future 2019. Detailed data is also available for the report figures and fact sheet.
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